Fantasy Football Week 7 Lineup Decisions: Geno Smith set up nicely thanks to potential shootout with Falcons

Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.

It's too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.

We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Derrick Henry. You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.

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The Saints defense registered a season-worst 20% pass rush pressure rate on Baker Mayfield last week, so I'd bank on them doing everything they can to up that mark against Bo Nix. Pair that with their man-to-man coverage tendency (seventh-highest rate in the league), and it's going to make for a tough matchup for Nix, who has not only rarely seen man-to-man coverage but has struggled mightily against it. The story will be the same for Spencer Rattler -- the Broncos play more man coverage than anyone and will constantly create pressure. Rattler might as well be playing with a hand tied behind his back since his top two receivers and multiple starting O-linemen aren't expected to be available. You won't start anyone other than Alvin Kamara and the DSTs with confidence.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Alvin Kamara, Broncos DST, Saints DST (low-end No. 1 DST)

STARTS: Javonte Williams (low-end No. 2 RB), Juwan Johnson (streaming TE)

FLEX: Courtland Sutton (PPR)

SITS: Bo Nix (low-end bye-week QB), Spencer Rattler, Jaleel McLaughlin (stash), Bub Means,

In their past three games, the Patriots have allowed 4.9, 5.2, and 7.4 yards per rush to opposing running backs. The opponent's lead back in two of those games had at least 20 non-PPR points; in the other two backs combined for 17 non-PPR points, and the fullback scored a touchdown. This has to be where the Jaguars aim their offense this week -- run the ball and use play-action off of it to win downfield. Once they were down 28-10 in the fourth quarter last week, the Jaguars went into pass-heavy mode, and Tank Bigsby barely played. That scenario feels unlikely this week, and if Travis Etienne is on the shelf, the hunch is that Bigsby will get every opportunity to charge into this weakened Patriots defense. His physicality should help him break tackles and extend runs.

STARTS: Rhamondre Stevenson, Tank Bigsby (No. 2 RB), Brian Thomas Jr. (No. 2 WR), Evan Engram, Hunter Henry (streaming TE)

FLEX: Demario Douglas (high-end flex in PPR), Antonio Gibson

SITS: Drake Maye (bye-week QB), Trevor Lawrence (bye-week QB), Christian Kirk (low-end flex in PPR), D'Ernest Johnson (low-end bye-week PPR RB), Patriots DST, Jaguars DST

The game has high-scoring potential since Seattle's allowed 29-plus points in three straight, and Atlanta's given up at least 20 points in five straight. But Atlanta's rounded into a zone-heavy pass coverage unit, and they're fourth-worst in pass rush pressure rate (28.4%) and dead last in sacks (five). That sets Geno Smith up for success as he's completed nearly 75% of his throws against zone compared to 59% against man, and he's averaging nearly a yard more per attempt against the former. I expect both quarterbacks to throw plenty, making receivers like Darnell Mooney, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett all potential starts as at least flexes.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Drake London

STARTS: Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith (low-end starter), Darnell Mooney (borderline No. 2/3 WR in PPR), Kyle Pitts

FLEX: Jaxon Smith Njigba (especially in PPR), Tyler Lockett (especially in non-PPR)

SITS: Tyler Allgeier (bye-week RB), Zach Charbonnet, Noah Fant (streaming TE), Seahawks DST, Falcons DST

Calvin Ridley saw eight targets in the last three quarters of the Titans' loss last week, but caught none. He might have had two passes that he could have caught, but five were deemed uncatchable. That's a Will Levis problem made worse by the Titans refusing to use Ridley as a short-range target -- his average depth of target in Week 6 was 16.6 yards, and on the season, it's 18.7 yards. Buffalo's zone-heavy, minimal-blitz approach would benefit Ridley oh so much if he just saw shorter targets ... and Levis has a 5.2% off-target rate on throws inside of 14 Air Yards. Until the Titans fix this, Ridley's a Fantasy headache.

Amari Cooper figures to predominantly play along the outside and become Josh Allen's top target. The team tried to make it work with Gabe Davis in years past, then this year with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, then Mack Hollins, and even some of Keon Coleman, but none were particularly effective. Cooper should solve the issue since he's a physical receiver with underrated speed and, terrific quickness and route-running skills. I'd expect at least a one-week grace period for him and Allen to get on the same page, and the Titans are expected to stick tough cornerback L'Jarius Sneed on Cooper anyway.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Allen

STARTS: Tony Pollard, James Cook (No. 2 RB), Dalton Kincaid, Bills DST

FLEX: Amari Cooper

SITS: Calvin Ridley (low-end No. 3 PPR WR), Khalil Shakir (low-end No. 3 PPR WR), DeAndre Hopkins, Ray Davis (bye-week RB), Ty Johnson, Julius Chestnut, Titans DST, Will Levis

Because Deshaun Watson's played so poorly, and because Joe Burrow's track record against the Browns isn't really awesome (20 or fewer Fantasy points in four straight against them), this matchup could come down to who runs the ball better. Chase Brown is a little dicey since he's only had two games this year with 15-plus touches and only one with more than 70 yards from scrimmage, AND the Browns run defense is coming off a week where they shut down Saquon Barkley. Nick Chubb appears to be ready to make his season debut after two weeks of practicing and hopefully give Cleveland's offense some much-needed life. Cincy's run defense held Tyrone Tracy and friends to 3.1 yards per carry last week but were busted for 5.6 yards per rush by the Ravens and Panthers RBs in the prior two weeks. With the Browns' offensive line relatively healthy and the team desperate to do anything but call pass plays, Chubb could be efficient but might not play as much as we would like.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase

STARTS: Chase Brown (No. 2 RB), Tee Higgins, David Njoku, Bengals DST (streaming DST), Browns DST

FLEX: Nick Chubb (non-PPR), Jerry Jeudy (low-end PPR flex)

SITS: Deshaun Watson, Zack Moss (low-end bye-week PPR RB), Cedric Tillman (deep-league stash), Andrei Iosivas, Pierre Strong, Mike Gesicki

Two outstanding offenses face off this week, which puts two of Fantasy's most boom-or-bust receivers under the microscope. Tank Dell ran a route on 91.4% of the Texans' dropbacks and turned nine targets into seven catches, 57 yards, and a short touchdown catch; the route rate, targets, and catches were all season-highs, and that was in a game where Stroud threw just five times in the fourth quarter. Christian Watson also notched season-highs in route rate (74.3%) and yards (68), turning four targets into a touchdown on a deep ball in a similar style of blowout. Watson played half of his snaps in the slot last week, which was new, and this week, his numbers could especially rise with Dontayvion Wicks sidelined. Both teams have allowed a slew of receiving touchdowns (at least seven each to wideouts), which is why both are in the top-half of the league in Fantasy points allowed to the position, but the Texans are in the top-eight.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Jacobs (No. 2 RB), Jayden Reed, Stefon Diggs

STARTS: Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon, Tank Dell, Tucker Kraft

FLEX: Christian Watson

SITS: Romeo Doubs (low-end No. 3 WR), Dameon Pierce, Emanuel Wilson, Dalton Schultz, Texans DST, Packers DST

Miami won in Week 5 because they controlled the clock with their run game, grinding 36 times for an average of 5.2 yards per tote. Their previous season-highs? 29 rushes and 3.5 yards per carry. The Dolphins' O-line should be well-rested, and the backs should be springy coming off the bye against a Colts run defense that's floundered to the tune of 5.5 yards per rush and an 11.4% rate of runs of 10-plus yards -- and three rushing scores -- allowed over its past two games.

OBVIOUS STARTS:

STARTS: Anthony Richardson (borderline starter), De'Von Achane (No. 2 RB)

FLEX: Josh Downs (borderline PPR No. 2/3 WR), Raheem Mostert, Trey Sermon,

SITS: Tyler Huntley, Tyler Goodson (bye-week PPR RB), Jaylen Wright (stash),

Losing defensive end Aidan Hutchinson couldn't come at a worse time -- the undefeated Vikings boast a receiving corps that the Lions will have a hard time matching up with. If there's a silver lining, it's that the Vikings have given up the seventh-highest pass rush pressure rate this year (39% of dropbacks), meaning that if the Lions can up their blitz rate, then they should be able to disrupt Sam Darnold to some degree. Darnold's been sacked 14 times this year and has seen his completion rate and yards per attempt collapse to 42.5% and 4.7 yards when pressured, but he also has a monster 10% TD rate when pressured, along with the fourth-highest time-to-throw average at 3.29 seconds.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Aaron Jones

STARTS: Sam Darnold, Sam LaPorta

FLEX: Jameson Williams (higher in non-PPR)

SITS: Jared Goff (borderline starter), Jordan Addison (bye-week WR), Cam Akers, Ty Chandler, Vikings DST, Lions DST

The one thing the Eagles did more of coming out of the bye last week was blitz. As a result, they had a season-high 50% pass rush pressure rate and five sacks of lowly Deshaun Watson. This is a gameplan they will probably roll with again versus a Giants O-line that allowed pressure on 36.1% of Jones' dropbacks -- and that was with left tackle Andrew Thomas. Speeding up Daniel Jones has never been a good thing for his numbers, and there could be a ripple effect for his pass-catchers. Similarly, the Eagles won't have left tackle Jordan Mailata either, and the Giants would normally bring the house against Jalen Hurts, but Kayvon Thibodeaux is on injured reserve, and there's a chance edge rusher Brian Burns misses the game.

I noticed the Giants do tend to tailor their run offense to the weakness of the defense they play. For instance, the Eagles have struggled against zone-scheme runs lately, so don't be surprised if the Giants lean on that format this week. Which running back is better for that? Unfortunately, neither: Tyrone Tracy Jr. has averaged 3.1 yards per carry and Devin Singletary has averaged 2.3 yards per carry. That's a real change for Singletary, who was great in zone runs before this year. And Tracy's zone runs have averaged 3.7 yards per tote in his past two games. It makes both running backs tough to trust, but if I had to pick one, it would be Tracy since he's been playing well and isn't coming off an injury like Singletary. Neither is anything better than a desperation starter.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Malik Nabers,

STARTS: DeVonta Smith, Wan'Dale Robinson (low-end No. 2 WR in PPR), Eagles DST (low-end DST)

SITS: Daniel Jones, Tyrone Tracy Jr. (bye-week RB), Devin Singletary (bye-week RB), Kenneth Gainwell, Darius Slayton (unless Nabers is out), Grant Calcaterra, Theo Johnson, Giants DST

In their last game, the Rams used all of their top receivers -- Tutu Atwell, Jordan Whittington, and Demarcus Robinson -- across the formation. They all lined up in the slot about one-third of the time, and they all ran a route on 85% of the team's dropbacks, but only Atwell and Whittington had a 24% target per route run rate. This has mostly been consistent since Whittington joined the lineup in Week 4, and in those two games, he's done more damage from out wide (8 catches, 97 yards) rather than the slot (3 catches, 20 yards). Atwell's done a little more from the slot (7 catches, 87 yards) than wide (4 catches, 53 yards). There's always a chance the Rams change their formula coming out of the bye, and there's also a real chance Kyren Williams takes over and has a monster week, but given the matchup and the Raiders' much better coverage numbers against outside receivers compared to slot guys, perhaps Atwell has the better opportunity coming his way this week.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Kyren Williams

STARTS: Brock Bowers, Rams DST

FLEX: Alexander Mattison, Jordan Whittington (low-end PPR flex), Tutu Atwell (low-end flex), Tre Tucker (desperation non-PPR flex)

SITS: Matthew Stafford, Aidan O'Connell, Demarcus Robinson, Colby Parkinson, Zamir White, Raiders DST

This is Carolina's most favorable matchup since Week 3. Washington lost stellar D-lineman Jonathan Allen and may be without their best-remaining pass rusher in Dorance Armstrong. The Commanders are middle-of-the-pack in terms of blitz rate and pass rush pressure rate but they're fifth in sack rate (8.9%) and had 17 sacks this season, though seven came against the Browns in Week 5. Anything that can remove some pressure from Andy Dalton's face will help the Panthers, whose offense hasn't been that bad since the quarterback change. Seven of the 10 receivers with at least six targets against Washington have posted a minimum of 15.5 PPR points, and five have been over 20 PPR points.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Jayden Daniels, Chuba Hubbard, Terry McLaurin

STARTS: Diontae Johnson, Zach Ertz (low-end PPR TE)

FLEX: Xavier Legette (low-end flex)

SITS: Andy Dalton, Austin Ekeler, Jeremy McNichols (unless Brian Robinson is out), Ja'Tavion Sanders (stash), Commanders DST, Panthers DST

After getting beat up by the Vikings in Week 2, the Niners defense has improved. They've allowed 3.6 yards per carry, a 5.8% rate of 10-plus-yard runs, and three rushing touchdowns in Weeks 3 through 6. That's serious improvement and something that figures to be problematic for the Chiefs run game. In those same four games, only Kyler Murray hit over 14 Fantasy points, and he needed a long touchdown run to get there. Having cornerback Charvarius Ward back will help the Niners a bunch in a matchup they've likely had circled since February 12.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle

STARTS: Brock Purdy (low-end No. 1 QB), Travis Kelce, Brandon Aiyuk (low-end No. 2 WR), Kareem Hunt (No. 2 RB), Jordan Mason (No. 2 RB if active), 49ers DST, Chiefs DST (low-end DST)

FLEX: JuJu Smith-Schuster (PPR preferred), Xavier Worthy

SITS: Patrick Mahomes, Isaac Guerendo (low-end No. 2 RB if Mason is inactive), Ricky Pearsall, Samaje Perine, Patrick Taylor

As a runner, Justin Fields was great for Fantasy and accounted for five of the Steelers' six rushing touchdowns through six games. As a passer, he was solid but not spectacular: five passing touchdowns in six games, but just one interception and a 66.3% completion rate on an Air Yard average of 7.5 yards and a 10% off-target rate. Thing is, those numbers are not far off from where Russell Wilson was at last year in Denver -- 66.4% completion rate, a 7.1 Air Yard average, and an 8.5 off-target rate. Even their metrics on short throws (inside of 15 Air Yards) are similar. So unless the Steelers have seen something in Wilson that's better than what we saw in Denver, the switch seems odd, especially when you consider the rushing dimension Fields gives the Steelers. This new dynamic will play versus a Jets pass defense that's held every QB it's faced except Josh Allen last week to 12 or fewer Fantasy points, including Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold.

It shouldn't take very long for Davante Adams to get on the same page with Aaron Rodgers -- a few days of practice and maybe a half of game action might be enough. It's expected that Adams will play mostly on the outside, but both he and Garrett Wilson will sparingly play in the slot, too (Allen Lazard figures to be there the most). It wouldn't be irrational to expect a seismic shift in who Rodgers targets from play to play -- Wilson has at least eight targets in five games, and Lazard had at least seven in four. The new reality might be eight-plus targets per game for Adams (if not 10-plus) and seven-plus most games for Wilson, with Lazard picking up scraps. And the matchup will not be easy: No. 1 receivers like Drake London and CeeDee Lamb struggled to put up big numbers, while co-No. 1s in Indy (Michael Pittman and Josh Downs) did come through for big games in PPR.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Breece Hall

STARTS: Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson (No. 2 WR), Jets DST, Steelers DST

FLEX: George Pickens, Najee Harris

SITS: Aaron Rodgers (high-end bye-week QB), Russell Wilson, Allen Lazard (bye-week WR), Braelon Allen, Jaylen Warren, Pat Freiermuth, Tyler Conklin

As awesome as the Bucs' run game was last week, it might not matter as much this week. The Ravens have held opposing running backs to 2.9 yards per carry this season, and they've played one game this year when their opponent called more than 17 running back rushes. Just 2.1% of runs against the Ravens have gone 12-plus yards, and none have gone longer than 16 yards. For whatever it's worth, I thought Sean Tucker looked like the better all-around running back for Tampa Bay last week, even if Bucky Irving was a little faster. I don't see how coach Todd Bowles goes back to giving a heaping dose of work to Rachaad White, but I also don't see how any one of these guys can be reliable for Fantasy even if they weren't in the worst possible matchup.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans,

STARTS: Baker Mayfield, Zay Flowers (No. 1 WR), Mark Andrews (borderline starter), Ravens DST (borderline starter)

FLEX: Rachaad White (PPR only), Bucky Irving (non-PPR only)

SITS: Sean Tucker (stash!), Rashod Bateman (bye-week PPR WR), Cade Otton (streaming TE), Isaiah Likely (streaming TE), Buccaneers DST

The Chargers defense has played zone coverage at the second-highest rate this season, something that should continue so that they don't let Kyler Murray run for big yards against them this week. But this is a defense that hasn't blitzed much this year -- under 31.4% of dropbacks in each of their past four games -- yet have created a fierce 44%-plus pass rush pressure rate in each of their past two. This might be a big volume game for Trey McBride, but the rest of Arizona's offense could be in for a rough time.

OBVIOUS STARTS: JK Dobbins

STARTS: James Conner (No. 2 RB), Trey McBride, Chargers DST (good next week too vs. NO)

FLEX: Marvin Harrison Jr., Ladd McConkey (PPR)

SITS: Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, Michael Wilson, Quentin Johnston, Cardinals DST

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